Anecdotes & Beliefs

There are many ways to invest. I have picked a style that I believe suits my skills and empirically wins over time. While the process will evolve, it will be consistently applied and not swing around with the whims of the market.
At my core whether it is stocks, sporting goods, clothing, real estate, or cars – I never want to overpay. I would much rather have what I like at a fair or below market price than pay up for what is hot. I have a relative value approach to life.
At the stock level I believe the best risk mitigator is buying stocks at a significant discount to their intrinsic value. I feel that valuation is the key factor, surprisingly missed by many in this world of multi-factor analysis, momentum, and “quality” investing.
JCM3 uses the macro to get in the right stocks not to increase portfolio beta. Our preference is for the portfolio to have a beta under one.
Macro analysis is focused on what could go wrong. In broad international equity investing it is extremely important to be aware of and understanding geopolitics, economic growth trajectories, and price trends across as many asset classes and geographies as possible.
The strategy avoids expensive speculative stocks and highly levered risky businesses. These are the stocks where prices can collapse.
Although the strategy will likely underperform in momentum/speculative (growth at any price) markets where valuation is an afterthought, we expect above benchmark returns in most other market cycles.